The magnesium market in 2021 is called "difficult to meet in 20 years". Affected by the carbon neutralization policy, the price of magnesium ingots has experienced a huge gap of 10000 per day and 8000 per day. COVID-19, carbon neutrality, energy crisis and so on, all of which show the volatility market. Not only magnesium, but also non-ferrous metals are facing great changes, and the test of customers' control over the market has just begun. It remains to be seen whether metallic magnesium can continue to sing all the way in 2022.
1、 Magnesium ingot price
(1) First quarter: in January, due to the impact of inventory, the price of magnesium plant fell sharply. After that, due to the preparation of downstream goods before the festival and the start of scheduling production, the price recovered strongly; Orders continued to be delivered in February, and there was no inventory pressure in the magnesium plant. After the inflation of non-ferrous metals rose sharply, the price of ferrosilicon rose due to the rising electricity price in Inner Mongolia and the shutdown event, the price of magnesium ingots began to rise continuously, which was fermented from February to March. Supported by high costs, magnesium ingots ended the first quarter at a strong price.
(2) Second quarter: the replenishment of "Yu magnesium" became a good start in April, followed by domestic demand and foreign trade procurement. After the transaction surged, the magnesium price began to rise. After May Day, both bulk commodities and non-ferrous metals entered the upward channel, and the transaction price of magnesium reached 22000 yuan / ton, which fell after reaching a new high in recent 10 years; However, due to the strict coal safety inspection during the July 1st party celebration and the shortage of raw coal supply, magnesium ingots returned to a high level of 20000.
(3) Third quarter: it can be said that the situation is changing. From the upgrading and environmental protection inspection of Fugu orchid charcoal in early July; By August, the environmental protection policy was suddenly; By September, Fugu energy consumption conference and the Mid Autumn Festival, the factory will be shut down. Round after round of policies have continuously stimulated the mentality of buyers. The sky high price of 70000 yuan has deterred most customers, and the shutdown and reduction of domestic magnesium powder, magnesium alloy and titanium plants have intensified.
(4) Fourth quarter: the output of magnesium ingots recovered in October and November. Affected by demand, the price fell to 33000 yuan, and a short "buyer's market" came. However, during this period, the current situation of less spot magnesium plants has not been changed. After December, environmental protection inspectors were welcomed, and the "buyer and seller" changed again. Although downstream customers want to stay on the sidelines, they must purchase a small amount under the influence of policies.
To sum up, the price fluctuation of magnesium ingots this year is mainly affected by policies, and the "spot shortage" of factories is from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. However, after the high magnesium price, the demand situation is worrying, and the statements of the demander's market and the buyer's market are contrary to each other, which has become a big mystery in the magnesium market.
2、 Operating rate of magnesium ingot
Shaanxi: in addition to the regular maintenance season and policy impact, the overall fluctuation of the operating rate in Shaanxi this year is relatively flat, and most magnesium plants have not carried out full load production.
Shanxi: the annual production start in Shanxi Province basically remained normal, with little overall change.
Ningxia and Inner Mongolia: since there is only one in production in Ningxia, the annual production starts basically remain normal except for maintenance; In the first half of the year, the operating rate in Inner Mongolia rose after Huihao and Huihao were able to resume production one after another, and then remained basically stable..
Xinjiang: the annual production start-up of magnesium enterprises in Xinjiang has little change, and the start-up change is mainly the maintenance of equipment damage in magnesium plants.
3、 Magnesium ingot output
From January to December 2021, the total output of domestic magnesium ingots was about 830000 tons, an increase of about 20000 tons over 2020, an increase of about 2.47%. This year, the production capacity of magnesium plants in China increased Fugu magnesium industry and Jixi Tiancheng magnesium industry. After the third and fourth quarters, the profit of magnesium ingots was better, and the maintenance period of magnesium plant was reduced. Except that the production was unable to be carried out due to policies, the maintenance was reduced in the rest of the time. Therefore, although the production was not at full capacity, the annual output was relatively average, a small increase over last year.
4、 Export market
According to customs statistics, the total export volume of metal magnesium products from January to November 2020 was about 410000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 70000 tons, an increase of about 20.59%. This year, the export market of magnesium ingots began and ended in light. The shortage of containers in the middle of the year, the rising trend of sea freight and the sharp rise and fall of thousands of yuan of domestic magnesium ingots in the second half of the year have all increased the operation difficulty of export traders, and many traders can only reduce orders to avoid losses.
5、 Downstream demand
(1) 99.95% magnesium ingot
According to incomplete statistics on the website, the total output of domestic sponge titanium in 2021 was about 141000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 21.55%. According to the ratio of 99.95% magnesium ingots required by the sponge titanium plant to produce one ton of sponge titanium, 1:1.1-1.2, the consumption of magnesium ingots by the sponge titanium plant this year is about 1551-169200 tons, an increase of about 27500-30000 tons year-on-year. This year, most domestic cotton titanium enterprises basically have production expansion plans, among which the output of JINDA, Xiangrun, Longbai and Pangang has increased significantly. It can be seen from the figure that the start-up of sponge titanium enterprises was relatively stable from January to September, and the output of enterprises was released to Jiaotong University. After October, due to the sharp rise of magnesium ingot price, semi process enterprises could not start normally, and the overall output decreased significantly. The domestic sponge titanium production capacity may continue to grow in 2022, and the overall output will continue to break through. It can be predicted that the competition among enterprises in the sponge titanium market may become more and more intense next year. At the same time, the polarization between civil products and products may become more and more obvious.
(2) 99.9% magnesium ingot
In 2021, there will be no significant change in the downstream consumption of 99.9 magnesium ingots, which are still mainly concentrated in aluminum plants, magnesium alloys, steel plant desulfurization (magnesium powder), other alloys and foundries.
In 2021, China's aluminum alloy output still showed an upward trend. By the end of November 2020, the cumulative output of China's aluminum alloy from January to November 2021 was 9.552 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.009 million tons, an increase of about 11.81%.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the cumulative output of crude steel was 946.359 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%; The cumulative output of steel was 1223.33 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. It is estimated that China's crude steel output will be about 1.03 billion tons in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of about 3%, and now it has a negative growth for the second time since 2015. The annual daily output of crude steel decreased. From January to November 2021, the average daily output of crude steel was 2.833 million tons, a decrease of 76000 tons compared with the annual average daily output of 2.909 million tons in 2020; The monthly daily output reached a record high of 3.262 million tons in April 2021
In 2021, the overall consumption of the domestic automobile market was good. From January to November, the production and sales of automobiles were 23.172 million and 23.489 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and 4.5% respectively; Compared with the same period in 2020, it increased by 0.5% and 1.5% respectively. The growth of automobile production is conducive to stabilizing the steel demand of manufacturing industry, among which new energy vehicles will drive the demand for magnesium alloy.
6、 Raw material price
The ex factory price of dolomite is stable throughout the year. The tax included cash price of dolomite in Wutai Area of Shanxi is about 54-56 yuan / ton, and the usual freight to Fugu area of Shaanxi is about 40-50 yuan / ton. The overall inventory of dolomite in magnesium plant is sufficient, the market is relatively stable, and there is no significant change in the price throughout the year.
In 2021, the supply and demand of ferrosilicon increased, the profit remained high, and the price fluctuated sharply. Market fluctuations are mainly affected by controllable policies, and then superimposed with speculative demand, resulting in the imbalance between market supply and demand and the continuous rise of market prices. In the first three quarters, with the continuous promotion of controllability, the market price continued to rise, reaching the peak in recent decades after one size fits all in fugu. With the intervention of the national development and Reform Commission on coal in October, the cost support fell, the supply pressure eased, and the market price collapsed rapidly
(3) Raw coal
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the national raw coal output totaled 3.67 billion tons from January to November 2021. During the peak winter, due to the impact of power rationing and tight power coal supply in many provinces and cities, coupled with the crazy power coal market and the gradual imbalance between market supply and demand, China's coal price has been rising all the way since April 2021, reaching more than 1000 yuan per ton so far. At present, China has introduced relevant measures to ensure coal supply and prevent coal prices from rising continuously. The short-term effect is uncertain, and it is expected to be gradually stable in the long term.
7、 Market forecast in 2022
Demand: in 2021, the overall downstream demand for metallic magnesium has not increased significantly. On the contrary, in the late part of the year, due to the impact of raw material prices, most processing enterprises are slightly difficult to operate and dare not purchase in large quantities; At the same time, the international demand has also weakened due to the price, but some factories think that the procurement will be sooner or later, considering the good demand for foreign terminal orders, and express their optimism about the magnesium ingot export market next year. Due to the rampant epidemic last year, the export of magnesium ingots this year increased by about 70000 tons compared with last year, and the deep-processing applications of domestic magnesium alloys are also expanding, such as battery structural parts, building templates, etc; The sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high in 2021. Based on national policies and personal consumption needs, the sales volume is expected to be further next year; Aluminum alloy increased year-on-year from 2017 to 2021; All these indicate that the demand for magnesium ingots in the domestic market is gradually increasing.
Supply: two new production capacity in the metal magnesium market this year: Fugu Magnesium Industry Co., Ltd., with a monthly production capacity of about 1300 tons; Jixi Tiancheng Magnesium Industry Co., Ltd. currently has a monthly production capacity of about 700 tons; Other magnesium plants that have actually been put into operation are not known yet. Due to the gradually high profits, manufacturers at home and abroad are interested in getting involved, and China is still in the stage of understanding. Therefore, the domestic magnesium ingot supply should be able to maintain a stable range in the short term; Foreign factories have expanded their production and want to take a share in the international magnesium market. Therefore, we need to continue to pay attention to the dynamics of the international market
This year, supply and demand is no longer the dominant factor in the change of magnesium market, and unknown policies will bring more "accidents" to everyone. As the country continues to eliminate backward production capacity, people in the magnesium industry should also jointly keep up with the times.